Saturday, July 7, 2007

The Iranian Fear Of Decapitation

Enemy forces in Iraq appear to be using Iran as a base of operations. This increases the potential for open conflict between the US and Iran.

Some may discount the possibility of Iranian cooperation with a Al-Qaeda because of the doctrinal conflict between Shiia and Sunni, but this is folly. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” is an ancient and tried and true foreign policy doctrine that permits such cooperation. Neither of the two need to like each other that much as long as they are both agreed that another is an enemy that they both want to hurt or destroy.

Alliances of these type are always very temporary yet they are also very real.

There is also the possibility that Iran is incapable of pushing Al-Qaeda off of their territories or just afraid to even try. They may fear that If they were to expel Al-Qaeda from Iran proper that they would find themselves fighting an enemy that would have the means and the will to decapitate them.

~~~
A senior US official said the information had produced different assessments. “The most conservative, cautious intelligence assessment is that [the Iranian authorities] are turning a blind eye. But there are a lot of doubts about that,” he said.

“They are benefiting from the mayhem that AQ is carrying out. They don’t have to deal with al-Qaeda to benefit.”

Yet while Tehran might be content with the pressure al-Qaeda is placing on the US occupation in Iraq, Iran, as a state based on Shia Islam surrounded by mainly Sunni countries, has long been wary of al-Qaeda’s fierce brand of Sunni Islam.

A former Iranian official said Iran feared al-Qaeda and did not want to distract it from Iraq, dismissing any idea that Iran was supplying it with weapons. “Our relationship with al-Qaeda, at an intelligence level, can be said to be successful as long as they are at a distance,” he said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9cc4d5f4-2be3-11dc-b498-000b5df10621.html

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